Ten months of data tell a story of Los Angeles South Bay real estate market that has bounced from strong monthly volume increases one month to devastating decreases the following month and back again. Likewise, monthly median prices have ranged from double digit positives to double digit declines.
Both sales volume and median prices suffered the same wild swings early in 2025. As the year progressed, sales statistics have begun to stabilize. For the most part volume and price are now differing from last year predominately in single digits.
Most of those changes are now ending as declines. For the first time this year, October sales volume was down in all four market areas, for a total decline of 7%. Last month volume was down in three of the four, and down across the South Bay, though by a statistically insignificant amount.
Year over year median prices slipped in October for the high end of the market. Homes in the Beach and Hill areas fell slightly. Those in the Harbor and Inland areas rose slightly. With the notable exception of the Beach area, median prices have been falling all year. At this point it looks entirely possible to see the final median price for 2025 fall below that for 2024.
Forecasts from the Federal Reserve hint at another .25% decrease in the prime rate during the December meeting. While such a move has a “feel good” quality, some Fed leaders have said the real problem is a weakening in the employment market. Estimates made earlier in the year are already being revised to show increased unemployment and decreased purchasing power. Either of those alone will impact real estate. Both together could kick off the recession major banks are preparing to face.
Beach:
Compared to September business, home sales at the Beach jumped up 18% in October. For perspective, it should be noted that sales volume was down by 9% in September, after falling 17% in August. While volume increased for the month, the median price dropped 3%, coming in at $1.899,000.
This close to the end of the year, annual comparisons are more meaningful than month to month. The 118 homes sold in October was a 9% reduction from the same month in 2024. Similarly, the median price took a hit, ending a mere $1,000 below last year.
Year to date, both the sales volume and the median price are still up from the first 10 months of 2024. Sales volume is up 14% and the median sales price is up 8%. Both metrics have been deteriorating since the end of the first quarter and are expected to continue downward.
Harbor:
With 322 homes sold in October, the Harbor area experienced a 5% increase in sales volume over September. The area simultaneously registered an inconsequential $2,250 decrease in median price from $795,000 to $792,500.
Sales volume fell 7% from last October after having dropped 3% in September. Sales have declined in four out of the last five months. Despite the lower number of sales, the median price increased by 2% for the month, following a 5% increase in the prior month.
Year to date, home sales in 2025 have lessened each successive month in comparison to 2024. As of October, sales volume this year was 2% higher than it was in 2024. Continued declining sales threaten to shift the market into negative range. The median price for the first ten months stood at 1%. That number too appears to be faltering.
Hill:
October left little question about the real estate market on the Hill. Nearly everything was down—monthly and annual—volume and prices. On sales of 55 homes, volume dropped by 31% from September. The median price of $1,840,000 was 14% below the prior month.
Looking at the same month in 2024 shows 17% drop in the number of homes sold on the Palos Verdes Peninsula, the largest decline among the four areas for the month of October. The median price for the month was likewise the largest decline of the month, dropping 4%.
Through October, sales volume in the Hill area brought a bit of relief with a 6% gain over the same period in 2024. The median price took that respite away as it dropped 1%.
Inland:
Monthly statistics for the Inland area showed the most positive results of the four areas, though they ended mixed. With 142 homes sold, the area had a 20% gain in sales. The volatility of the monthly data came through with a decline of 9%, as the median price fell to $919,000.
Comparing the month of October from 2024 to that of 2025 shows the opposite mix with the number of sales down 1% while the median price rose by 5%.
With 2025 nearing its end, the year to date number is most important. As the year has passed by the outlook for the total year has looked increasingly negative. Each successive month the sales volume has moved toward negative growth, as has the median price. The Inland area was the closest to negative for October with 1% more sales for the period than were recorded in 2024. For the same period, median price in the Inland area has remained 2% above the median for 2024.
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena
Photo by Benoit Debaix on Unsplash
